7/24 40-man realities

There has been plenty of speculation by commenters here about whether or not Jorge Soler or others will be called up in September. On Wednesday, Theo Epstein was asked whether Soler would be promoted because the outfielder was on the 40-man roster.

“The 40-man is a real consideration when it comes to promotions,” Epstein said. “If a player is already on the 40 or has to be protected this winter and has to be added to the roster [because of the Rule 5 Draft], it just makes it easier to call them up than if you have to prematurely add a player to the 40-man just for September.

“We haven’t made those decisions yet,” Epstein said. “We talk about the different possibilities and discuss the pros and cons. We don’t start to focus on it until the last week of August, and even then, we hope that [Triple-A] Iowa will be in the playoffs and we hope they go deep. That affects the calculus if you’re only looking at a couple weeks left in the Major League season.

“Yes, the 40-man does make a difference, and the need to be added for Rule 5 protection, does make a difference.”

For a list of who is on the 40-man roster, you can go to Cubs.com, and click on “Roster.”

— Carrie Muskat


I believe the following players will be off the 40 man roster after the season….thru trades, free agency, waiver…..Theo will also need to open space to save guys from Rule 5 draft, trades and major free agent signings……

Fujikawa………team buy out no doubt
McDonald…….Scott Baker 2.0
Villanuava……..trade bait
J Baker…………Theo will look for someone new
Vitters………….time ran out for #1 draft pick
Valbuena………trade bait
B Jackson…….just like Vitters
Schierholtz……trade bait
Sweeney……..weak bat not worth keeping
Szczur………..not worth keeping with young guys moving up
Bonifacio……..trade bait

two ex Cubs pitching today……..Feldman (Hou) vs Samardzija (Oak)

Not bad CT except I’m not so sure anymore about Schierholtz’s trad value???

Don’t know why you add Szczur, hes not on the 40 man roster.
You could be right about Jackson and Vitters. Would it matter?
As far as trade bait, your not going to get much, if anything for Villanueva, Schierholtz or Sweeney. Might get something for Bonifacio.
My guess is any trade moving forward is not going to net much, maybe a mid level class A prospect.
So there is nothing to get excited about. Just clear up some 40 man roster space.
Nothing major, so at this point it just don’t matter.

Actually, Szczur is on the 40-man. I don’t know what his status is after this season, if he’s in the Cubs plans in 2015 or he can become a free agent if not called up or something like that. I would think though that the Cubs wouldn’t want to simply just release him for the sake of getting him off of the 40-man. If they retain him this off-season, he should at least get a look in Spring Training.
Villanueva, Schierholtz, and Bonifacio are free agents after this season, so they will be off of the 40-man once they file for free agency (if they haven’t already been traded away). McDonald is technically not on the 40-man now because he’s on the 60-day DL, so if he never gets off the DL this season the Cubs can simply release him without having to worry about putting him back on the 40-man. Fujikawa is on the 60-day DL too, but he’s on a rehab assignment now, so you’d think his return to the Majors is coming up soon. Valbuena is arbitration-eligible, so he’ll be on the 40-man if he’s not traded in the next few days or in the off-season. He probably won’t get a huge raise, can play multiple positions, and provides veteran insurance off the bench, so if he makes it through the off-season he should be a member of the team in 2015.

You are correct, my bad. I looked earlier and just missed seeing Szcur’s name.
Even though, he could still make it as a 4th OF with improvement. You have to like his speed.

It seems to me that the 40 man roster and “control” play as much of a role in determining when to promote a player as performance. At least for a team that is essentially tanking three straight season so it can accumulate prospects. Soler is a perfect example. If the Cubs are a legit contender next season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see players come up more quickly. For example, Schwarber could join the team at some point next season.

I don’t think we will see Schwarber next season… if everything goes perfectly maybe you see him in September. Soler really isn’t an example of anything. Control still matters very much for him because Soler can opt out at anytime to take arbitration if the arbitration will offer him more money. So you would still want to control him for as long as possible to keep him away from Arb.

“Soler really isn’t an example of anything.” Really? Carrie quotes Theo as saying, “The 40-man is a real consideration when it comes to promotions.” Soler is on the 40 man roster, so that seems like a crystal clear example to me. And he can’t opt out of his contract at any time. He can opt out after three years. I think his clock started the day he signed his contract, although I am not sure. So I guess they could keep him down in Iowa through the end of next season to save money. Or better yet, they could have just never signed him, and that would have saved a minimum of $30m. If Bryant and Soler could magically change contracts, than I suspect Bryant would be in Chicago right now, and they would be looking to push back Soler’s clock. We’ll see on Schwarber. It seems to be that the team is starting to make decisions based on winning at the Major League level, and not just tanking for prospects. I suspect by next July, Schwarber will be the best option in LF, so he’ll move up.

the term opt out at anytime to take arbitration was implying he could opt at once he hits arbitration. You get arb after 3 years of service… sooo it wouldn’t make sense for him to opt out anytime before then because his current contract is of more value than what Baez and Bryant will make in their first 3 seasons. But you still wouldn’t want to rush Soler up and start his clock sooner than you needed to BC he would be able to make more money through Arb sooner just like Baez and Bryant (if he opted out). Basically Soler’s contract could end up just like Baez and Bryant BUT Soler is making way more money UPFRONT (not factoring in the signing bonuses they got thru the draft process). The 30mill investment in Soler was just like investing in other IFA like Tanaka, Darvish, Cespedes, etc etc…. its a great risk but hoping to get a great talent thru means other than the draft. It was a smart investment and one I ahve no problems with bc 30mill over 9 years isn’t going to hurt this organization EVER. It was the cost to receive a lottery ticket that could turn out to be A STUD!!!!

Also I think you are way too optimistic on Schwarber….. no way IMO that he is up next July. That would mean he went through the entire Cubs minor league system in a year more or less. I would love that but no way do I expect or see that happening! I think the FO is going to give him a shot to C and that could cost him most of if not all of next year. That bat at catcher would be such a huge value.

These mind exercises are always fun! From my perspective, service time isn’t an issue with Soler. So I guess we’ll just have to disagree there. Instead, I think his going to Chicago comes down to whether he stays healthy and performs well in AAA. And we’ll see with Schwarber. He actually signed a month earlier than Bryant did, and has put up arguably better as good or better numbers. Don’t buy the company line about players moving slowly. I’m sure there were people surprised that Almora and Soler were promoted. (What! Soler didn’t have the required 200 ABs!!). Buster Posey skipped AA entirely. Castro skipped AAA. Mike Trout played 18 games in AAA. And it sure looks like Soler will just get a cup of coffee in Iowa before going to Chicago. But we’ll see.

One of the main points that Soler signed with the Cubs, was he had to be on the Cubs 40 man roster.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: